The Consumer Electronics Association has been saying the US is in the midst of the ‘digital transition’ for years. If so, it’s one of the longest on record. With less than a year and a half to go before analog programming is cut off, less than 15% of Americans have digital sets. Worse, less than half of those actually watch high definition programming according to Nielsen Research. (Hat tip to www.nikkifinke.com).
It’s no surpise: analog televison sets are persistent in your house–they just work. Unlike computers, they don’t get obsolete every two years. And although prices on plasma, DLP and LCD TVs have been dropping, so have real estate values–it’s harder to get a home equity loans to make your house pay for its home theatre.
The CEA’s sales numbers look good; sales of digital TVs rose from 12.5 million in 2005 to 18.5 million or so in 2006, or 50%. But there’s probably close to 300 million TVs (one for every American at home, in the bars, hotels, etc.) meaning 250 million CRT analog sets are still humming contentedly. Only a fraction will be replaced by 2009; prepare for lots of ‘fixes’ using set-top box analog to digital converters.
I’m bracing for another massive Consumer Electronics Show in Vegas. And this year, with high gas prices, foreclosures up and a recession coming, the sunny view always portrayed by Gary Shapiro of the CEA (home of the ‘biggest and best CES ever’, every year) looks gloomier.
December 8, 2007 at 8:44 pm
Just a quick note to update the statistics in your thoughtful post. The Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) actually conduct the definitive research on consumer electronics sales (with over 2,200 member companies, CEA has the best access to manufacturer data). By the end of 2007, more than 53% of American households will have a digital television, and that number will continue to grow between now and the DTV transition in 2009. More than 85% of Americans subscribe to multichannel video services (cable, e.g.), and thus can continue to receive television signals with their analog televisions. And for those households (approximately 13.5 million households today) that receive over-the-air signals on analog televisions, beginning January 1, 2008, they can order up to two $40 coupons from the government for use toward the purchase of converter boxes that will allow the reception of digital signals on an analog television. All these details and more information about the benefits of the DTV transition are available at http://www.dtvtransition.org.
We look forward to welcoming you to the International CES this year.
Jason Oxman
CEA